Reducing emissions may be a global commitment, but the effects of failing to meet it are local. Therefore, we have analysed how climate change might affect Barcelona on the basis of Catalan Meteorological Service projections, focusing on two possible scenarios:
(or RCP4.5)
A more committed scenario (aka RCP4.5), in which the 2015 Paris Agreement emission reduction targets are achieved. In this scenario, the concentration of GHGs would be higher than now at the end of the century but the increase would be reduced from 2030 onwards, in order to restrict the maximum rise in the overall temperature of the planet to 1.5 - 2ºC.
(or RCP8.5)
A more passive scenario (aka RCP8.5) which represents a situation in which the targets set in Paris are not reached, so the GHG concentrations at the end of the century would be much higher than present levels. The increase in global temperature would be considerably higher than 2ºC.
According to the projections of the Catalan Meteorological Service, a rise in temperatures is forecast in Barcelona’s case, and a downward trend in rainfall:
